What are the key factors that win or lose elections in India? What does, or does not, make India's democracy tick? Is this the end of anti-incumbency? Are opinion polls and exit polls reliable? How pervasive is the 'fear factor'? Does the Indian woman's vote matter? Does the selection of candidates impact results? Are elections becoming more democratic or less so? Can electronic voting machines (EVMs) be fiddled with? Can Indian
elections be called 'a jugaad system'?
Published on the eve of India's next general elections, The Verdict uses rigorous psephology, original research and as-yet-undisclosed facts to talk about the entire span of India's electoral history from the first elections in 1952. Crucially, for 2019, it provides pointers to look out for, to see if the incumbent government will win or lose.
Written by Prannoy Roy, renowned for his knack of demystifying electoral politics, and Dorab R. Sopariwala, this book is compulsory reading for anyone interested in politics and elections in India.

Contents

Foreword

Part 1

Turning Points in India's Elections : A Maturing Democracy

1.The end of Anti-Incumbency
2.Women Ahead
3.Signs of Greater Democracy in India

Part 2

How to forecast India's Elections
Forecasting 2019 Lok Sabha : What to Look Out For

1.Forecasting Elections : The Good,
The Bad and the Ugly
2.Can you Trust opinion polls in India ?
3.The Biggest Challenges in Forecasting Elections

Part 3


How to make your won Forecasts

Good Polls, Bad Polls......and Beyond Polls

1.Other Major Predictors and Indicators
2.The Five Different Types of Polls in India
3.The Nine Big Worries about Polling in India

Part 4

Divide and Rule

1.What the Best way to Win an election ?
2.Elections are not truly Representative
3.India's Beatiful Jugaad First-Past-The Post Electoral System

Part 5

Conclusion

Implications for the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections